Saturday, 17 December 2011

Torrent of bad financial news flows out of Europe (AP)

DUBLIN ? Alarming financial news flowed out of Europe in a torrent Friday, just a week after the EU leaders struck a deal they thought would contain the continent's debt crisis.

The bombardment shredded hopes of a lasting solution to the turmoil that is endangering the euro ? the currency used by 17 European nations ? and threatening the entire global economy.

In quick succession:

? The Fitch Ratings agency announced it was considering further cuts to the credit scores of six eurozone nations ? heavyweights Italy and Spain, as well as Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland and Slovenia. It said all six could face downgrades of one or two notches.

? Ireland's economy shrunk again much deeper than had been expected, with its third-quarter gross domestic product falling 1.9 percent. Ireland is one of three eurozone nations kept solvent only by an international bailout.

? Bankers and hedge funds were balking in talks about forgiving 50 percent of Greece's massive debts, a key issue in the debate over Greece's second rescue bailout.

? The red ink in Spain's regional governments surged 22 percent in the last year, endangering the central government's efforts to avoid being the next country priced out of international bond markets.

On the positive side, Fitch said EU powerhouse France should keep its top AAA credit rating and Italian lawmakers overwhelmingly passed Premier Mario Monti's new austerity package in a confidence vote, even though many still objected to its pension reforms.

French officials and investors had feared that France could get downgraded, which would have immediate repercussions for the entire eurozone. France and Germany's AAA credit ratings underpin the rating for the eurozone's bailout fund.

European Union leaders confirmed Friday they have distributed the text of their proposed new budget-stability treaty, a pact designed to deter runaway deficits and supposed to become EU law by March. But as growth prospects fade across the continent, governments are facing the likelihood that Europe's debt crisis will prove longer and tougher to overcome than even their most recently revised forecasts.

Until this week, EU leaders held up Ireland as the model for how a debt-struck nation should behave ? defying economic gravity by simultaneously growing its economy while sucking billions out of that same economy in Europe's longest austerity drive.

But on Friday, Ireland announced its third-quarter gross domestic product fell 1.9 percent, its national product 2.2 percent. Economists had expected only an 0.5 percent fall for GDP and none at all for GNP. The latter figure is considered a better measure of Ireland's economic vitality because it excludes the largely exported profits of about 600 American companies based in the country.

Ireland has been cutting spending and hiking taxes since late 2008 and has plans to keep doing so through 2015. Next year's target is euro2.2 billion ($2.87 billion) in cuts and euro1.6 billion ($2.09 billion) in extra charges, including a hike in national sales tax to 23 percent and introduction of a new euro100 ($131) tax on every property.

But the country's finances this year are seriously out of whack: It is spending euro57 billion ($74.5 billion), including euro10 billion ($13 billion) to keep its five nationalized banks afloat, but collecting just euro34 billion ($44 billion) in taxes.

Labor union leaders say the unexpected slump confirmed Friday is irrefutable evidence that Ireland's 4.5 million citizens already have been squeezed too much, too quickly.

"Current policies are making recovery almost impossible," said David Begg, general secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, which represents about a third of Ireland's 2 million-strong work force.

"No economy can sustain the sort of ongoing damage that is being inflicted on us," Begg said. "The latest figures show, yet again, a big drop in domestic demand while retailers warn of more closures in the new year. We need growth and we need it quickly."

Ireland's year-old international bailout requires the Irish to reduce their annual deficits from an EU record 32 percent of GDP in 2010 to the traditional eurozone limit of 3 percent by 2015.

Analysts from the left and right agree that Ireland cannot hope to meet the 2015 goal if its economy doesn't grow sufficiently. Ireland's recovery plan now presumes 1.6 percent growth in 2012 and 2.8 percent growth in each of the next three years ? figures many consider way too optimistic.

Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin, said Ireland would "do well" to reach 0.5 percent growth this year "given the deteriorating world economic backdrop and the fall-off in global demand." He said he doubted Ireland could top 1 percent growth next year.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/europe/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111216/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_financial_crisis

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Paris Saint-Germain fades away

By JEROME PUGMIRE

AP Sports Writer

Associated Press Sports

updated 6:40 p.m. ET Dec. 14, 2011

PARIS (AP) -Big-spending Paris Saint-Germain crashed out of the Europa League on Wednesday, a costly exit for an ambitious French club desperate for silverware and one which increases the pressure on coach Antoine Kombouare.

PSG grabbed two goals in the last five minutes at Parc des Princes to beat Athletic Bilbao 4-2, but it was all for nothing as Salzburg won 3-2 at Slovan Bratislava to join Bilbao as Group F's qualifiers for the last 32.

"It's very disappointing. We honestly could have got through in this group," said Kombouare, whose future is under heavy scrutiny. "But when your qualification comes down to one game and your destiny is no longer in your own hands, then things become difficult."

Lazio, Besiktas, Wisla Krakow and Steaua Bucharest were the other teams to qualify for the knockout phase on Wednesday.

Wisla's progress from Group K was sealed in dramatic circumstances, beating FC Twente 2-1 and then seeing Fulham concede a goal to Odense with 10 seconds remaining in stoppage time to draw 2-2. The English club, finalists in 2010, would have gone through with a win.

The remaining four berths are up for grabs on Thursday, with the draw for the last 32 being made on Friday.

PSG's wealthy Qatari backers, QSI, spent ?82 million ($116 million) on new signings at the start of the season, but the club is now out of both the League Cup and the Europa League.

Kombouare's position has been under the microscope in recent weeks after the club's sporting director Leonardo admitted he had met with former Chelsea manager Carlo Ancelotti.

After Wednesday's game, Leonardo denied suggestions that PSG midfielder Claude Makelele is in line to replace Kombouare in an interim role before a bigger name takes over.

"It's good to talk about this possibility, but we never offered him this position," Leonardo said.

Defender Jon Aurtenetxe gave Bilbao an early lead and David Lopez equalized for the Spanish side after Javier Pastore and Mathieu Bodmer put PSG 2-1 up.

Midfielder Inigo Perez's own goal and substitute striker Guillaume Hoarau's penalty sealed PSG's win, which was ultimately in vain after Salzburg came from two goals down inside the first six minutes to secure second place in the group.

Lazio was the other big name threatened by early elimination from Europe's second-tier club competition on Wednesday but the Italian side avoided the same fate as PSG.

Libor Kozak and Giuseppe Sculli scored the goals as Lazio qualified in second place in Group D with a 2-0 win over pool winner Sporting Lisbon. FC Vaslui could have still denied Lazio a last-32 spot by beating FC Zurich, but the Romanian team lost 2-0 in Switzerland.

Besiktas leapfrogged Stoke to finish top of Group E by rallying to a 3-1 victory over the English club, which had already clinched its place in the knockout phase.

Fulham looked to be cruising through when it went 2-0 ahead by the 31st minute following goals by United States midfielder Clint Dempsey - his third goal in the competition - and Kerim Frei.

However, the English club paid the price for sitting back and protecting its lead, with Hans Henrik Andreasen halving the deficit in the 64th and substitute Djiby Fall grabbing a dramatic equalizer with the final touch of the game.

"It was the last cross of the match, so I'm very, very disappointed," Fulham manager Martin Jol said.

Wisla did its part by ending Twente's unbeaten record in the group, although the Dutch club had already qualified as group winners.

Steaua, the 1986 European champions, pipped Maccabi Haifa to second place behind Schalke in Group J by beating AEK Larnaca 3-1. Maccabi slumped to a 3-0 home loss to Schalke, which had already qualified.

Anderlecht sealed top spot in Group L with a perfect record by winning 5-3 at home to Lokomotiv Moscow, in a match between two teams who had already gone through.

Anderlecht striker Matias Suarez scored for the seventh time in this season's competition, helping the Belgian club reach a total of 18 goals from its six group games.

? 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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Paris Saint-Germain fades away

Roundup: Despite winning Wednesday, big-spending Paris Saint-Germain crashed out of the Europa League, a costly exit for an ambitious French club desperate for silverware.

Reuters
Extending?

Glasgow Rangers have opened talks with Maurice Edu's agent in hope of extending the American midfielder's stay with the defending Scottish Premier League champion.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44539139/ns/sports-soccer/

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Friday, 16 December 2011

SEC charges ex-Fannie, Freddie CEOs with fraud (AP)

WASHINGTON ? The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday brought civil fraud charges against six former top executives at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying they misled investors about risky subprime loans the mortgage giants held when the housing bubble burst.

Those charged include the agencies' two former CEOs, Fannie's Daniel Mudd and Freddie's Richard Syron. They are the highest-profile individuals to be charged in connection with the 2008 financial crisis.

The federal government has faced criticism for not bringing charges against top executives who may have contributed to the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression.

Mudd, 53, and Syron, 68, led the mortgage giants in 2007, when home prices began to collapse. The four other top executives also worked for the companies during that time.

The lawsuit was filed in federal court in New York City.

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives told the world that their subprime exposure was substantially smaller than it really was," said Robert Khuzami, SEC's enforcement director. "These material misstatements occurred during a time of acute investor interest in financial institutions' exposure to subprime loans, and misled the market about the amount of risk."

Fannie and Freddie both entered into agreements with the government on Friday, accepting responsibility for its conduct without admitting or denying the charges. The government-controlled companies also agreed to cooperate with the SEC on the cases against the former executives.

The Justice Department has opened up probes into Fannie and Freddie but has not charged anyone with a crime.

In a statement released through his attorney, Mudd said the lawsuit "should never have been brought" and said the government reviewed and approved all of the company's financial disclosures.

"Every piece of material data about loans held by Fannie Mae was known to the United States government to the investing public," Mudd said. "The SEC is wrong, and I look forward to a court where fairness and reason ? not politics ? is the standard for justice."

Syron's lawyers said the case was "without merit," and said the term "subprime had no uniform definition in the market" at that time.

"There was no shortage of meaningful disclosures, all of which permitted the reader to assess the degree of risk in Freddie Mac's" portfolio, the lawyers said in a statement. "The SEC's theory and approach are fatally flawed."

According to the lawsuit, Fannie told investors in 2007 that it had roughly $4.8 billion worth of subprime loans on its books, or just 0.2 percent of its portfolio. The SEC says that Fannie actually had about $43 billion worth of products targeted to borrowers with weak credit, or 11 percent of its holdings.

Mudd told a congressional panel in March 2007 that Fannie's subprime business represented less than "2 percent of our book." He also said the company held subprime mortgages "very carefully." A month later, he told a separate congressional panel that subprime loans represented less than 2.5 percent of Fannie's books.

Freddie told investors in 2006 that it held between $2 billion and $6 billion of subprime mortgages on its books. The SEC says its holdings were actually closer to $141 billion, or 10 percent of its portfolio in 2006, and $244 billion, or 14 percent, by 2008.

In a May 2007 speech in New York, Syron said Freddie had "basically no subprime exposure," according to the suit.

Fannie and Freddie buy home loans from banks and other lenders, package them into bonds with a guarantee against default and then sell them to investors around the world. The two own or guarantee about half of U.S. mortgages, or nearly 31 million loans.

During the financial crisis, the two firms verged on collapse. The Bush administration seized control of them in September 2008.

So far, the companies have cost taxpayers almost $150 billion ? the largest bailout of the financial crisis. They could cost up to $259 billion, according to its government regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Administration.

Mudd was fired from Fannie after the government took over. He's now the chief executive of the New York hedge fund Fortress Investment Group.

Syron resigned from Freddie in 2008. He's now an adjunct professor at Boston College.

The other executives charged were Fannie's Enrico Dallavecchia, 50, a former chief risk officer, and Thomas Lund, 53, a former executive vice president; and Freddie's Patricia Cook, 58, a former executive vice president and chief business officer, and Donald Bisenius, 53, a former senior vice president.

Lund's lawyer, Michael Levy, said in a statement that Lund "did not mislead anyone." Lawyers for the other defendants declined to comment Friday morning.

Fannie and Freddie had traditionally purchased a small number of subprime mortgage loans, which involved borrowers with credit problems who could not qualify for cheaper prime loans. But starting in the late 1990s many firms started purchasing subprime loans, and Fannie and Freddie followed suit.

Legal experts say the cases, while unusual, might not yield much in penalties against the former executives.

In July, Citigroup paid just $75 million to settle similar civil charges with the SEC. The company's chief financial officer and head of investor relations were accused of failing to disclose more than $50 billion worth of potential losses from subprime mortgages. The two executives charged paid $100,000 and $80,000 in civil penalties.

A federal judge in the case said she was "baffled" by the low settlement.

Fines against executives charged in SEC civil cases can reach up to $150,000 per violation. SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro has asked Congress to raise the limit to $1 million.

Mudd made nearly $4 million in salary and bonuses in 2007, and Syron made more than $18 million, according to company statements.

The SEC has charged more than 80 people, including 40 CEOs and senior executives, with violations stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/personalfinance/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111216/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fannie_freddie_charges

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Dana Carvey wants Regis Philbin for president

By Ree Hines

Comedian Dana Carvey delivered a sample of his typical stand-up bits to late night audiences on Tuesday's "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno," and -- no surprise -- the routine was jammed packed with political impersonations.

During Carvey's "Saturday Night Live" days, his best known presidential impression was that of George H. W. Bush, but since then he's added the current commander-in-chief to his repertoire, along with a slew of Republican presidential hopefuls.

Between various takes on President Barack Obama, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, Carvey focused on something familiar he feels certain is lurking under the surface when it comes to Rick Perry.

"It's only a matter of time before Rick Perry does a 'Mission Impossible' thing with (pulling off) the mask and it's 'W'!" Carvey told host Leno. "'Hey, how ya' doing? I'm back!'"

As for the candidate Carvey is rooting for when it comes time to cast a vote, the funnyman would like to see one more option.

"We need a third party," he said. "Regis Philbin for president!"

Would the semi-retired talk host get your vote? And what did you think of Carvey's latest political impressions? Share your comments below.

?

Also in Entertainment:

Source: http://entertainment.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/14/9443361-dana-carvey-wants-regis-philbin-for-president

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Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Motorola Droid 4 with LTE, Xoom 2 Media Edition with AT&T bands hit FCC

Motorola's been on a FCC-approving rampage lately, and we have two more entries to add to the mix. The first is what appears to be the QWERTY-packing Droid 4: not only does it come with Verizon's LTE band 13 and CDMA / EVDO (with GSM / EDGE / WCDMA on the side, locked to all US carriers), the docs make mention of the Droid 4's rumored 1,785mAh battery and shows test results with "slider open" and "slider closed." Also passing through the governmental agency's doors is what appears to be a GSM 3G version of the Xoom 2 Media Edition with AT&T-compatible (850 / 1900) GSM / WCDMA bands. Unlike the Xyboard that made its way through the FCC a few days ago, this one lacks LTE or CDMA / EVDO. Check out the gallery below for a few images gleaned from the docs.

Motorola Droid 4 with LTE, Xoom 2 Media Edition with AT&T bands hit FCC originally appeared on Engadget on Mon, 05 Dec 2011 17:22:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Source: http://www.engadget.com/2011/12/05/motorola-droid-4-with-lte-xoom-2-media-edition-with-atandt-bands/

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Tuesday, 6 December 2011

Do presidents really age faster than rest of us?

FILE - This July 16, 1992 file photo shows then Democratic presidential nominee Gov. Bill Clinton shaking hands with supporters as he arrives at the Hotel Inter-Continental in New York. A new study shows that contrary to the idea that being president speeds up the aging process, many U.S. commanders in chief have lived longer than their peers. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast, file)

FILE - This July 16, 1992 file photo shows then Democratic presidential nominee Gov. Bill Clinton shaking hands with supporters as he arrives at the Hotel Inter-Continental in New York. A new study shows that contrary to the idea that being president speeds up the aging process, many U.S. commanders in chief have lived longer than their peers. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast, file)

FILE - This Jan. 19, 1999 file photo shows President Clinton giving his State of the Union address on Capitol Hill. A new study shows that contrary to the idea that being president speeds up the aging process, many U.S. commanders in chief have lived longer than their peers. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds, file)

FILE - This Aug. 3, 2000 photo shows then presidential candidate George W. Bush and his wife Laura giving a thumbs up to the crowd after making an acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in the First Union Center in Philadelphia. A new study shows that contrary to the idea that being president speeds up the aging process, many U.S. commanders in chief have lived longer than their peers. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds, file)

FILE - This Jan. 28, 2008 file photo shows President Bush delivering the State of the Union address on Capitol Hill in Washington. A new study shows that contrary to the idea that being president speeds up the aging process, many U.S. commanders in chief have lived longer than their peers. (AP Photo/Tim Sloan, Pool)

FILE - This Aug. 28, 2008 file photo shows Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., giving his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention at Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver. A new study shows that contrary to the idea that being president speeds up the aging process, many U.S. commanders in chief have lived longer than their peers. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, file)

(AP) ? White House wannabes take note: Contrary to the idea that being president speeds up aging, a study shows that many U.S. commanders in chief have actually lived longer than their peers.

Using life expectancy data for men the same age as presidents on their inauguration days, the study found that 23 of 34 presidents who died of natural causes lived several years longer than expected.

The four former presidents still alive have already lived longer than predicted, or likely will because they're in good health, the study said.

"The graying of hair and wrinkling of the skin seen in presidents while they're in office are normal elements of human aging," said study author S. Jay Olshansky, a researcher on aging at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

Stress can speed up those two outward signs of aging, and it's possible that job stress has made some presidents appear to age quickly. But the study shows that doesn't mean being doomed to an early grave.

"We don't actually know if they get more gray hair or more wrinkles" than other men their age. "But even if they did, we don't die of gray hair and wrinkles," Olshansky said.

Given that most of the 43 men who have served as president have been college-educated, wealthy and had access to the best doctors, their long lives are actually not that surprising, he said.

His study is published in Wednesday's Journal of the American Medical Association.

The idea that presidents age quickly comes from casual observation and more studious assessments. Promoters of that idea include Dr. Michael Roizen, chairman of Cleveland Clinic's Wellness Institute and co-founder of RealAge, Inc. The "real age" concept suggests that age depends partly on lifestyle factors including stress and diet that either keep people young or prematurely age them. Roizen theorizes that presidents age twice as fast while in office.

Roizen said Olshansky's study doesn't disprove that idea and only shows "that in order to run for president you tend to be incredibly healthy."

Olshansky stands by his findings.

The 34 presidents who died of natural causes were aged 73 on average at death, a few months less than Olshansky's' life expectancy estimate. But under the accelerated aging theory, their average age of death would have been 68, he said.

The 23 presidents who lived longer than Olshansky's projections died at an average age of 78, 11 years later than under the accelerated aging theory.

The four presidents who were assassinated ? Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy ? were aged 52 on average at death.

The first eight presidents were almost 80 years old on average when they died, at a time when the average life expectancy for men was less than age 35.

"It's absolutely extraordinary that they lived this long," Olshansky said.

That includes John Adams, who died at 90; James Madison, 85; and Thomas Jefferson, 83.

Ditto the last eight presidents who died ? seven lived longer than expected; Lyndon Johnson was the only one who didn't. He died of a heart attack at age 64, 10 years less than his projected life expectancy and five years less than his life expectancy with accelerated aging, Olshansky said.

Among the more recent presidents, Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford both died at 93. Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush are both 87.

Olshansky has even done some projecting about 50-year-old President Barack Obama. Given his age when inaugurated, Obama's life expectancy would be 79, but Olshansky estimates that Obama will live to at least 82 because of his education, wealth and access to top-notch health care.

____

Online:

JAMA: http://www.jama.ama-assn.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2011-12-06-Presidents-Aging/id-00d5cba9ea5e4e4abeeb4f2b5ddf4420

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Egyptian election results deepen Israeli fears

For Israelis, the Islamist election surge in Egypt is depressing confirmation of a deeply primal fear: An inhospitable region is becoming more hostile still.

This sentiment has been accompanied by a bittersweet sense that Israel was dismissed as alarmist when it warned months ago that the Arab Spring ? widely perceived as the doing of liberals yearning to be free ? could lead to Islamist governments.

Speaking for most people here, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak called the emerging result of the first round of parliamentary voting in Egypt "very, very disturbing" and expressed concern about the fate of the landmark 1979 Egyptian Israeli peace treaty.

"We are very concerned," added Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, who has long warned that Egypt could potentially pose a threat. Speaking to The Associated Press Sunday, Steinitz expressed hope that Egypt "will not shift to some kind of Islamic tyranny."

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Story: Islamists dominate latest Egypt election results

Experts here, as elsewhere, point out that political Islam comes in varying shades of green: The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has about a 10 percent lead over the more radical Salafists and appears far less eager to impose a devout lifestyle or seek conflict.

But most Israelis appear to have little patience for such distinctions. There is a sense that moderate Islamists are pulling off something of a con, lulling opponents into complacency, projecting a seemingly benign piety to exploit a naive public's hunger for clean government after years of corrupt, despotic rule. And there is a long memory of Iran, once friendly to Israel, where secular forces including the military helped depose the Shah in 1979 only to swiftly be steamrolled by fundamentalists.

"These upheavals are a bad thing for the modern world, for Israel," said Yitzhak Sklar, a 50-year-old Jerusalem resident. "There is something in their religion that pushes them to extremism. Their religion calls for murdering anyone who opposes them."

Smadar Perry, Arab affairs writer for Israel's top selling Yediot Ahronot daily, bemoaned Islam's "coming out of the closet" in Egypt, symbolized by the "disappearance of jeans-clad youngsters in favor of (those with) long beards and eyes ablaze with fanaticism." Islamist rule in Egypt under any stripe would be "a terrifying problem," she wrote.

Some of the fears ? for example, that an Islamist-led government in Egypt would mold itself in Iran's image ? may be overblown. Iran's clerical rule is unique in the Middle East, and the Muslim Brotherhood stresses the idea of a theocracy has no place in its ideology. Instead, it says it's committed to an Egypt that is civil, democratic, modern and constitutional.

Israeli concerns about political Islam can be traced to its longstanding battle against Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon and more recently to 2006, when the Islamist Hamas group swept Palestinian legislative elections.

The Hamas victory triggered a process that ultimately left the militant group, considered a terrorist organization by much of the world for its suicide bombing campaigns and other violent acts, in control of the Gaza Strip. Since then, Hamas and other militants have used the territory as a launching pad for firing rockets into southern Israel.

The stakes in Egypt are much higher. Egypt is the largest and most influential Arab nation, with a U.S.-backed army that has staunchly honored a 1979 peace agreement with Israel.

The peace agreement has been a cornerstone of Israeli security policy for three decades, allowing the military to divert resources to fight foes in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank. The treaty has also been a boon for Egypt, bringing in billions in U.S. military assistance.

"We hope that any government that will be formed in Egypt will recognize the importance of the existence of the peace treaty," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech Sunday.

At the same time, he said he had ordered a speeding of the construction of a massive fence being built along Israel's long and porous border with Egypt. Netanyahu said the fence, originally envisioned to stop the inflow of African migrants into Israel, has an "additional importance, security importance" now. In August, militants entering Egypt from the Gaza Strip infiltrated that border and killed eight Israelis.

The recent Islamic election victories in Tunisia and Morocco, considered the most moderate of Arab states, along with a growing Islamic influence in post-revolution Libya, have reinforced concerns.

"What we are facing in Egypt (and) elsewhere in the Middle East is an Islamic tsunami that we in Israel, in the West, will have to cope with in coming years," said Eli Shaked, a former Israeli ambassador to Egypt.

Shaked reflected the feeling of many in Israel that electoral wins by groups that may respect majority rule, but less so individual rights, is hardly a victory for democracy. "It seems that democracy in the Middle East has never been so far away as it is now," he said.

Israeli diplomats have cautioned against jumping to conclusions, noting that the final result in the elections for the Egyptian parliament's lower house won't be known until all stages of voting are completed in January and that presidential elections are next summer.

Yitzhak Levanon, who retired as Israel's ambassador to Egypt just last week, said officials in Cairo are well aware of the value of the peace agreement with Israel.

"There is great awareness of the importance of relations between Israel and Egypt," he told Israel Radio. "But Egypt is undergoing transformation. ... We have to monitor what's going on closely and be on guard."

He predicted tensions in the coming months between the military, parliament and a new president over division of powers. That tension and negotiations to form a majority coalition in the legislature could also limit the aims of more radical parties.

Others assess that taking on Israel cannot possibly be at the forefront of any group in an Egypt that is struggling with a desperate economic crisis. Indeed, the Brotherhood has said its priorities were to fix Egypt's economy and improve the lives of ordinary Egyptians, "not to change (the) face of Egypt into (an) Islamic state."

The Brotherhood, while no fan of Israel, has not said it wants to end the peace deal although it feels the treaty should be reviewed. The Salafis, new to politics, have not commented publicly on it.

On the societal level the Brotherhood differs as well, not favoring the imposition of strict Muslim law, preferring instead to lead by example. Elements of the Brotherhood are also known to have good ties with the military.

An emerging debate among the Islamist groups in Egypt seems to reflect this divide.

Yet on this point too Israelis consider mainly the case of Hamas, remembering their 1980s governments which ? less experienced with Islamists ? provided the group with quiet support to undermine Fatah, which was still banned here at the time.

Hamas went on to torment Israel with suicide bombings and then win the 2006 Palestinian vote because Fatah, by then Israel's ostensible peace partner, had become corrupt and detached. Palestinian voters yearned for better government, not more religion, many observers had said. Yet within a year Hamas had expelled Fatah-led Palestinian Authority forces from Gaza and has since slowly imposed its religious tenets on the population there while building up its military force.

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45542885/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

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